Live Market Signals
May 4, 2026
Yield Curve (10Y–2Y)
Recession indicator · Basis points
Near-flat curve — market pricing cautious outlook. Monitor for tightening in private credit.
0.42
▲ 0.08
SOFR Rate
Benchmark lending rate · %
Elevated benchmark rate. Floating-rate debt carries higher carry cost. Consider fixed structures.
5.31%
▼ 0.02%
30Y Mortgage Rate
Real estate lending benchmark · %
Elevated rates moderating real estate valuations. Sale-leaseback opportunities emerging.
6.82%
▼ 0.04%
HY Credit Spread
Private credit risk premium · bps
Tight spreads — constructive credit environment. Competitive deal terms available.
348bps
▲ 6bps
Industrial Production
Manufacturing activity index
Stable production levels. Steady demand supporting middle market operator cash flows.
103.2
▲ 0.2
Unemployment Rate
Labor market health · %
Healthy employment. Stable operating environment for most middle market sectors.
4.1%
▼ 0.1%
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